President Donald Trump's revelation last month that he had not spoken to his Chinese counterpart in a "long-term" and that he was not interested in doing so is the culmination of a much broader rift in the talks that has plagued former officials on both sides. Is a cause for concern.
According to Arthur Kroeber, a trade analyst
in China, for almost three decades since the Trump administration took office
in 2017; there have been about 100 officially organized exchange forums between
the two countries, ranging from pharmaceuticals to technology policy. The thing
was starting to touch. Gao Zhikai, a former Chinese diplomat who served as an
interpreter in Deng Xiaoping, made the same point.
Now almost all of these dialogues have
died down, meaning that senior and middle-ranking officials on both sides are
working in the dark about the activities and intentions of their opponents.
This increases the risk of misunderstandings or escalation of crises, and
prevents cooperation that could otherwise lead to emerging disasters such as
Covid-19.
"The demise of these structures is
not the trigger for a bad relationship, but the result of a breakdown in the
relationship," said John Pomfret, author of "These Beautiful
Structures and the Eastern Kingdom." Two centuries
Despite a "one-step" trade
agreement reached earlier this year, US-China relations are at their worst in
decades. With a full focus on the election campaign, Trump accused the Eleven
government of failing to contain the pre-epidemic Covid-19 outbreak, which
killed more than 185,000 Americans. U.S. politicians have expressed outrage at
Beijing's crackdown on Hong Kong, as well as its treatment of Muslim
minorities, in both cases.
Bilateral talks have been canceled or
abandoned since Trump took office, like a growing face between the two sides in
the disputed South China Sea - the most likely issue of any kind of military
conflict, such as domestic’. Can't resolve issues. But in the past, those
involved have said they can help promote back-channel diplomacy and have a more
critical view of negotiating teams.
"You need some tracks that are
basically talking to stores," said Kroeber, managing director of Global Economics,
an independent global economic research company. He added that the existence of
these forums "promotes relationships that can be implemented in times of
tension and crisis."
A key framework for the US-China Dialogue
was the 16 or more working groups under the Joint Commission on Trade and
Commerce, or JCCT, established in 1983 as a forum for high-level dialogue
during the Reagan administration. Was, done. It connects a wide variety of
agencies, from trade and energy, the environment and agriculture, to US and
Chinese agencies.
The Trump administration abolished the
JCCT in 2017, which was headed’ by the Treasury and State Departments, with a
strategy and economic dialogue program. They were replaced’ by more complex,
result-oriented comprehensive economic dialogue.
"People feel like a lot of time has
been wasted and a lot of material has been implemented," said James Green,
who works in the State Department and the Office of the U.S. Trade
Representative in the Obama administration. He said that for a large number of
US agencies, "often the only way to reach their Chinese counterparts was
through some sort of dialogue structure," he said.
They can also be useful in practical ways.
Jennifer Boy, a senior researcher at RAND
Corporation, wrote in a July 2019 study, "US-China cooperation was a key
part of the anti-SAARC campaign in 2003. In contrast to the small scale of CARD
19, SARS is an epidemic, both of which It is a source of conflict rather than
cooperation between countries.
Opportunities missed
"With US assistance in building
China's public health system and biomedical research, data and technology
sharing has benefited both countries and the world," Bui wrote. He noted
that as a leading manufacturer of health products, pharmaceutical ingredients
and vaccines, joint work between the two countries' regulators could help
ensure better compliance.
Among the potential missed opportunities:
A template of past work on influenza control monitoring to stabilize real-time
analysis of synthetic opioid drug use, RAND analysis showed.
As the travel industry looks at new
standards and procedures in the Coronavirus era, the US-China Travel and
Tourism Working Group will not be around to bridge the gap between the world's
two largest economies.
More specifically, diplomatic relations
between the civil parties are no longer developing. The US president announced
in January that he would stop sending Peace Corps volunteers to China after
nearly 30 years. And both governments are working to prevent Chinese students
from entering US institutions. Are running
"Slide to the Middle Ages"
Officials at the Chinese embassy in
Washington said in a statement that the country was ready to "restore and
restart" the dialogue process at all levels and in all areas. Everything
can be put’ on the table. And all differences can be properly resolved through
dialogue.
State Department spokesman Michael Pompeo,
referring to the July 23 speech at the Richard Nixon Presidential Library in
California, said in a statement that the "Eleven wants to oppress and
barbarize the world." The United States has said it will not "kneel
down" in Beijing
Although China has in the past benefited
from partnerships with US agencies, there has been resistance among those who
see their country rise at the expense of the United States. There is a
perception among some in the Xi’s government that the United States is "on
an incompetent slide" in moderation, "Pomfret said. And overall, the
dialogues were "never good at keeping the relationship going."
Nonetheless, the concern for observers on
both sides is how the security situation is deteriorating in the face of
escalating tensions.
History shows the potential for accidents
that test bilateral relations. On the military front, one came in the early
months of the George W. Bush administration. A Chinese fighter jet collided
with an American EP3 ship, forcing it to land at a Chinese airbase on the
Hainan Islands. The 2001 incident fostered military dialogue and exchanges with
stronger troops to counter the effects of such incidents in the future.
Although the relationship between the two
militants is usually professional, there is a risk of confrontation and
misunderstanding. In 2018, a Chinese warship came within 45 yards of the USS
Dictator as it sailed near disputed cliffs. Last week, the People's Liberation
Army fired four medium-range ballistic missiles into the disputed South China
Sea.
There is also room to move beyond the
military. The preferred means of retaliation against China and the United
States and its allies is usually the so-called gray zone strategy that avoids
direct confrontation. A possible example: the detention of two Canadians two
days after the arrest of a high-ranking Chinese executive by Canada last year.
A similar situation with US citizens could
be a test for Washington.
Regarding the two countries, "now
China and the former vice-president of the Center for Globalization, former
expert diplomat, Gao," even in the best of circumstances, all sorts of
worries and anxieties between them should be understood’ as normal.
"China-US. All kinds of dialogue and conversation are especially
important.
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