2 states to focus on early election night

Election Day is always a wonderful experience. The end of a long and sometimes tumultuous campaign, it is often silent throughout the day as we wait for the first count of real votes to come on Tuesday evening.

But this year, as noted, will be even more surprising. States are dealing with the arrival of mail ballots and will start counting them at many different times, meaning we will get their results at different speeds.

Given this, the candidates hope to snatch 270 electoral college votes to win. A good rule of thumb is to focus on Florida and North Carolina first.

The rules of these states and the end times of their initial polls mean that we will see a lot of results quickly. Electoral officials in North Carolina estimate that we will have about 80 percent of voters approaching 7:30 a.m. immediately after polling. Eastern Time. In Florida, where most pools are around 7 p.m. And the rest of the morning around 8 o'clock, election officials are allowed to count the mail ballots starting the week before election day and otherwise become proficient in counting ballots faster, which means we have The majority of results can be obtained in a few hours.

The second swing state that is expected to be counted’ sooner rather than later is Arizona, where mail belts can also be lengthened sooner. But its polls come later, around 9am, and mail ballots cannot be reported’ before 10am. The state also has a history of what happened in the days after the election.

So what do Florida and North Carolina mean? And what can we achieve if they seem to be moving in one direction or another?

Florida is less important than telling us where the country can go instead of competing for its size. It is almost always close, and its elections have not moved as much as the rest of the country since 2016. The last two presidential elections and the 2018 governor's race were decided’ for example, by about one percent or less, and surveys suggest that the race could be as close as these races. I was. The state is very simple which applies many lessons to other states.

The biggest reason to follow Florida is very simple, though: her election vote. If Joe Biden manages to win all 29 of them, President Trump's chances of winning will be significantly’ reduced. Even if you leave all the other semi-competitive states indiscriminate, Biden will have 230 electoral votes, of which only 40 of the remaining 183 will be’ needed. And if you give it only to Florida and the rival states that are likely to go blue (Colorado, Minnesota, Nevada and New Hampshire), Biden has more than 260 votes, which means he might have another. The state will be’ needed.

That way, Florida is even more important to Trump. If you vote for him, he still has work to do. Even if you give him Florida and traditionally red (but close!) Texas, he is only equal to Biden in the election vote (Biden 201, Trump 192). But it will give a chance to fight.

Biden has led in recent high-level elections in Florida, but is often mistaken. Biden is 46.1 percent ahead of Trump, 49.1 percent in the current Five-Eight poll. But in virtually all 2018 elections, Democrat Andrew Glam won the governorship, and he lost easily.

And now North Carolina. Unlike Florida, it can be read’ more as an indication that other swing states may be headed. That was up from 3.7 percentage points for Trump in 2016, but polling shows Biden averaging nearly two points. If Biden swings it in his favor, it not only gives him a big 15-vote reward, but he can also suggest good things ahead, because the state looks similar to some other swing states. ۔

For example, in a final review of NBC Newscaster College in the state, Biden White showed a 61 to 38 lead among college-educated voters, while Biden showed 49 in the New York Times-Siyana College poll. Displays hard to 45. Big differences (and data about small groups of such polls can be noisy), but Trump won those voters by 17 points in 2016. Should we have seen such a swing anywhere in this population in Biden (which was close to 4 out of 10) in the state in 2016), it would be huge and could suggest that we do the same in other states Will see something

The Ditto neighborhood, which Trump won by 24 points in 2016 but looks weak this year, currently has Biden backing 22 points in the NBC-Marist poll.

The second reason North Carolina is so important is that it is the second federal race in the belt. Defeating the Senate (R-N.C.) Is too big for the Democrats to get the Senate to a majority.

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